U.S. stock markets, our primary interest, are now global in nature and have complex cyclic behavior of varying frequencies. Many factors come into play to drive these market price indices beyond business profitability. Governments are significant players as they set fiscal policy and serve as the nation’s largest employer. Banks and financial institutions can have undue influence in providing the capital for business expansion. International events can impact supplies of key resources or cause general instability in the world. Adding to these complexities, the reaction of investors is not necessarily reflective of existing market conditions but rather expectations of future economic growth.

Market Analysis and Investment Timing Program (MAIT)

Working with a team of seasoned investment analysts, we have developed a comprehensive stock market evaluation tool. This tool, called the Market Analysis and Investment Timing Program (MAIT), is now being used to assist our clients in the timing and selection of their investments. MAIT combines two basic approaches to stock market analysis: a strategic one based on the economic environment and a tactical one based on investment price movements. Bayesian networks have been incorporated to provide the probabilistic indicators of when both the economic environment and investment price movements are right to buy or sell. The economic environment is tracked using 19 parameters which are logically incorporated in one Bayesian network to evaluate 5 factors: financial climate, consumer activity, production cycle, business projection, and stock valuation. Investment prices are tracked on a daily basis to recognize generic formations of price movements. Probabilistic relationships are generated from past statistics relating these generic formations to subsequent price movements, either positive or negative.